*************Forex or Forex Trading is an online business for currency trading that anobody can do from home computer *************

মঙ্গলবার, মে ০১, ২০১২

Description of the Forex

Description of the Forex
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The Forex market, established in 1971, was created when floating exchange rates began to materialize. The Forex market is not centralized, like in currency futures or stock markets. Trading occurs over computers and telephones at thousands of locations worldwide.The Foreign Exchange market, commonly referred as FOREX, is where banks, investors and speculators exchange one currency to another. The largest foreign exchange activity retains the spot exchange (i.e.., immediate) between five major currencies: US Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Eurodollarand the Swiss Franc. It is also the largest financial market in the world.In comparison, the US stock market may trade $10 billion in one day, whereas the Forex market will trade up to $2 trillion in one single day. The Forex market is an opened 24 hours a day market where the primary market for currencies is the 24-hour Interbank market. This market follows the sun around the world, moving from the major banking centres of the United States to Australia and New Zealand to the Far East, to Europe and finally back to the Unites States.Until now, professional traders from major international commercial and investment banks have dominated the FX market. There are three main reasons to participate in the FX market. One is to facilitate an actual transaction, where international corporations convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency. Corporate treasurers and money managers also enter the FX market in order to hedge against unwanted exposure to future price movements in the currency market. The third and more popular reason is speculation for profit. In fact, today it is estimated that less than 5% of all trading on the FX market is actually facilitating a true commercial transaction.The FX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or ‘Interbank’ market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network. Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.



History of the Forex
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Money, in one form or another, has been used by man for centuries. At first it was mainly Gold or Silver coins. Goods were traded against other goods or against gold. So, the price of gold became a reference point. But as the trading of goods grew between nations, moving quantities of gold around places to settle payments of trade became cumbersome, risky and time consuming. Therefore, a system was sought by which the payment of trades could be settled in the seller’s local currency. But how much of buyer’s local currency should be equal to the seller’s local currency?

The answer was simple. The strength of a country’s currency depended on the amount of gold reserves the country maintained. So, if country A’s gold reserves are double the gold reserves of country B, country A’s currency will be twice in value when exchanged with the currency of country B. This became to be known as The Gold Standard. Around 1880, The Gold Standard was accepted and used worldwide.
During the first WORLD WAR, in order to fulfill the enormous financing needs, paper money was created in quantities that far exceeded the gold reserves. The currencies lost their standard parities and caused a gross distortion in the country’s standing in terms of its foreign liabilities and assets.

After the end of the second WORLD WAR the western allied powers attempted to solve the problem at the Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire in 1944. In the first three weeks of July 1944, delegates from 45 nations gathered at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The delegates met to discuss the postwar recovery of Europe as well as a number of monetary issues, such as unstable exchange rates and protectionist trade policies.During the 1930s, many of the world’s major economies had unstable currency exchange rates.A recovery of Europe in the hopes of avoiding the problems that arose after the First World War.The delegates at Bretton Woods reached an agreement known as the Bretton Woods Agreement to establish a postwar international monetary system of convertible currencies, fixed exchange rates and free trade. To facilitate these objectives, the agreement created two international institutions: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank). The intention was to provide economic aid for reconstruction of postwar Europe. An initial loan of $250 million to France in 1947 was the World Bank’s first act. Under the Bretton Woods Exchange System, the currencies of participating nations could be converted into the US dollar at a fixed rate, and foreign central banks could convert the US dollar into gold at a fixed rate. In other words, the US dollar replaced the then dominant British Pound and the parities of the world’s leading currencies were pegged against the US Dollar.

সোমবার, ফেব্রুয়ারি ২০, ২০১২

How to trade with BB-1

How to trade with Bollinger Bands

Price moves in upper bands channel – uptrend, lower - downtrend

It is very simple to identify dominating price direction by simply answering the question: in what part of the Bollinger bands the price is currently trading? If price stays above the middle line – in the upper
channel – we’ve got a prevailing uptrend. If below the middle line – in the lower channel – we have a prevailing downtrend.


And just in case you’ve missed the beginning of the trend, Bollinger bands can help you get in the trend with good risk to reward ratio on a pullback. Simply look for dips towards the middle Bollinger bands line and enter in the direction of the trend.

How to trade with BB-2

How to trade with Bollinger Bands

Low volatility, followed by high volatility breakouts

When Bollinger bands start to narrow down to the point when they are visually forming a neat tight range (measured no other way than by eye), as shown on the screenshot below, the situation signals
of an upcoming increase in volatility once market breaks outside the bands. It is similar to a quiet time before the storm.

The more time passes while price is contained within the narrow Bollinger bands range, the more aggressive and extensive breakout is expected.


How to trade with BB-3

How to trade with Bollinger Bands

Price moves outside the bands – trend continuation

When price moves and closes outside the Bollinger upper or lower bands, it implies a continuation of the trend. With it Bollinger bands continue to widen as volatility rises. But it is not always straight forward: at some point closing outside Bollinger bands will mean price exhaustion and upcoming trend reversal.

Bollinger bands alone are not able to identify continuation and reversal patterns and require support from other indicators, such as often RSI, ADX or MACD – in general all types indicators that highlight
markets from a different than volatility and trend prospective (momentum, volume, market strength, divergence etc).


How to trade with BB-4

How to trade with Bollinger Bands

Trend reversal patterns with Bollinger bands

As a rule, a candle closing outside Bollinger bands followed later by a candle closing inside the Bollinger bands serves as an early signal of forming trend reversal. It is, however, not a 100% assurance of an immediate trend reversal.


Since long aggressive trend develop not that often, there will be on general more reversals than continuation cases, still only filter signals form other indicators may help to spot true and false market tops and bottoms.

Speaking of the last, Bollinger bands are also capable of aiding double top and double bottom pattern recognition and trading.

How to trade with BB-5

How to trade with Bollinger Bands

W and M patterns with Bollinger bands

A double top or M pattern is a sell setup. With Bollinger bands it occurs when the following sequence take place:
- price penetrates the lower band,
- pulls back toward the middle line,
- a new subsequent low is formed, and this low is above the lower band and never has touched it.
- a setup is confirmed when price reaches and crosses the middle Bollinger line.

In fact, a very conservative trading approach requires price to cross and close on the other side of Bollinger bands middle line before the trend change is confirmed.

As you have probably noticed, the middle Bollinger bands line is simply a 20 SMA (default) line. This Simple Moving Average (SMA) is by itself a widely used stand alone indicator, which help Forex traders
identify prevailing trends and confirm trading signals.

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Stochastic Indicator

Quick Summary

Trading with Stochastic indicator involves the following signals:

Stochastic lines cross — indicates trend change.
Stochastic readings above 80 level — currency pair is overbought,
Stochastic staying above 80 level — uptrend is running strong.
Stochastic exiting 80 level downwards — expect a correction down or beginning of a downtrend.
Same for readings below 20 level — currency pair is oversold,
staying below 20 — doentrend is running strong,
exiting upwards above 20 — expect an upward correction or a beginning of an uptrend.

Details

The idea behind Stochastic indicator.The main idea behind Stochastic indicator according to its developer, George Lane, lies in the fact that rising price tends to close near its previous highs, and falling price tends to close near its previous lows.

How to interpret Stochastic indicator

Stochastic is a momentum oscillator, which consists of two lines: %K - fast line, and %D - slow line. Stochastic is plotted on the scale between 1 and 100. There are also so called "trigger levels" that are added to the Stochastic chart at 20 and 80 levels. Those lines suggest when the market is oversold or overbought once Stochastic lines pass over them.

Stochastic indicator Method 1

How to trade with Stochastic indicator

Method 1. Trading Stochastic lines crossover
This is the simplest and common method of reading signals from Stochastic lines as they cross each other. Stochastic %K and %D line work similar to moving averages and:
when %K line from above crosses %D line downwards traders open Sell orders.
when %K line from below crosses %D line upwards traders open Buy orders.

Stochastic lines crossovers that happen above 80% level and below 20% level are treated as strongest signals, compare to crossovers outside those levels.

Traders may choose sensitivity of their Stochastics. The smaller the Stochastic parameters, the faster it will react to market changes, the more crossovers will be shown.

Sensitive Stochastic (for example 5, 3, 3) is useful for observing rapidly changing market trends. But because it is too choppy it should be traded in combination with other indicators to filter out Stochastic signals.


Stochastic indicator Method 2

How to trade with Stochastic indicator

Method 2. Trading Stochastic oversold/overbought zones Stochastic by default has 80% level, above which market is treated as overbought, and 20% level, below which market is considered oversold.

It is important to remember that while in sideways moving market a single Stochastic lines crossover that occur above 80% or below 20% will most of the time result in a fast predictable trend change, in trending market could mean just nothing. When price is trending well, Stochastic lines may easily remain in overbought/oversold zone for a long period of time while crossing there multiple times.

That’s why a method of trading overbought/oversold zones stands up. The rules here are to wait until Stochastic lines after being in overbought/oversold zone come out from it. E.g. When stochastic was trading for some time in overbought zone – above 80% level, traders wait for the lines to slide down and eventually cross 80% level downwards before considering to take Short positions. Opposite for Long positions: wait till Stochastic lines come into the oversold zone (below 20% level); wait further until Stochastic lines eventually cross 20% level upwards; initiate a buy order once Stochastic lines are firmly set, e.g. a trading bar is closed and Stochastic lines cross over 20% mark is fixed.

Stochastic indicator Method 3

How to trade with Stochastic indicator

Method 3. Trading Stochastic divergence Traders are looking for a divergence between Stochastic and the price itself. At times when the price is making new lows while Stochastic produces higher lows creates dissonance in the picture. It is called divergence. Divergence between price and Stochastic readings suggest a forming weakness of a main trend and therefore its possible correction.


CSI theory

Commodity Selection Index theory

CSI combines 4 factors, which determine the best commodities for trading.
CSI suggest that the best commodities are:

- high in directional movement (DMI indicator value)
- high in volatility (Volatility Index value and ATR)
- have reasonable margin requirements (relative to directional movement & volatility)
- have reasonable commission rates

How to trade with CSI

Wilder's approach is to trade commodities with high CSI values (relative to other commodities).
A high CSI rating demonstrates that the commodity has strong volatility characteristics and is trending.
Such commodities with high CSI rating are very volatile, and have the potential to make the fastest profits in the shortest period of time.

CSI formula

Commodity Selection Index formula

CSI calculation example

CSI calculation example


Although high CSI values imply trending markets characteristics, the indicator is designed for short-term traders who can handle the risks associated with highly volatile markets.

MACD

MACD Quick Summary

MACD is the simplest and very reliable indicators used by many Forex traders.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) has in its base Moving Averages.
It calculates and displays the difference between the two moving averages at any time. As the market moves, moving averages move with it, widening (diverging) when the market is trending and moving
closer (converging) when the market is slowing down and possibility of a trend change arise.

Trading with MACD indicator includes the following signals:

MACD lines crossover — a trend is changing
MACD historam staying above zero line — market is bullish, below — bearish.
MACD histogram flipping over zero line — confirmation of a strength of a current trend.
MACD histogram diverges from price on the chart — signal of an upcoming reversal.

Basics behind MACD

Basics behind MACD indicator

Standard indicator settings for MACD (12, 26, 9) are used in many trading systems, and these are the setting that MACD developer Gerald Appel has found to be the most suitable for both faster and slower moving markets. In order to get a more responsive and faster performance from MACD one can can experiment with lowering MACD settings to, for example, MACD (6, 12, 5), MACD (7, 10, 5), MACD (5, 13, 8) etc.
These custom MACD settings will make indicator signal faster, however, the rate of false signals is going to increase.

MACD indicatoris based on Moving Averages in their simplest form. MACD measures the difference between faster and slower moving average: 12 EMA and 26 EMA (standard).

MACD line is created when longer Moving Average is subtracted from shorter Moving Average. As a result a momentum oscillator is created that oscillates above and below zero and has no lower or upper limits. MACD also has a Trigger line. Combined in a simple lines crossover strategy, MACD line and trigger line crossover outperforms EMAs crossover.

Besides being early on crossovers MACD also is able to display where the chart EMAs have crossed: when MACD (12, 26, 9) flips over its zero line, if indicates that 12 EMA and 26 EMA on the chart have crossed.


MACD indicator work

How does MACD indicator work

If to take 26 EMA and imagine that it is a flat line, then the distance between this line and 12 EMA would represent the distance from MACD line to indicator's zero line. The further MACD line goes from zero line, the wider is the gap between 12EMA and 26 EMA on the chart. The closer MACD moves to zero line, the closer are 12 and 26 EMA.
MACD histogram measures the distance between MACD line and MACD trigger line.


MACD indicator Formula

                                         MACD indicator Formula
MACD = EMA(Close)period1 - EMA(Close)period2
Signal Line = EMA(MACD)period3

where
period1 = standard settings are 12 bars
period2 = standard 26 bars
perid3 = standard 9 bars

The following are the steps to calculate MACD

1. Calculate the 12-days EMA of closing price
2. Calculate the 26-days EMA of closing price
3. MACD = 12-days EMA - 26-days EMA
4. Signal Line = 9-days EMA of MACD

Formula for EMA

EMA = (SC X (CP - PE)) + PE

SC = Smoothing Constant (Number of days)
CP = Current Price
PE = Previous EMA

Trading MACD Divergence

                                                       Trading MACD Divergence

MACD indicator is famous for its MACD Divergence trading method.

Divergence is found by comparing price shifts on the chart and MACD values. MACD Divergence phenomenon occur as a result of shifting forces on the Forex market. For example, while Sellers may seem to be dominating the market at the moment and price continues to trend down, there already might be signals for an overall weakening of Sellers power. This key warning moments can be observed with MACD indicator. What Forex traders would see is that despite price making new Lower Lows, MACD doesn't confirm that and instead registers a Higher Low, signaling that Sellers are running out of steam and a trend change is on its way.

Opposite will be true for Buyers.

MACD Divergence

How to trade MACD Divergence

When MACD line (on our screenshot it is a blue line) crosses Signal line (red dotted line) - we have a point (top or bottom) to evaluate. With two most recent MACD line tops or bottoms find corresponding tops/bottoms on the price chart. Connect MACD tops/bottoms and chart tops/bottoms. Evaluate the lines received, as shown on the larger screenshot (click on the small picture to enlarge).


 With MACD divergence spotted Enter the market when MACD line crosses over its zero point. Another entry strategy is to find 2 most recent swings high or low on the chart and draw a tr trough them; and then set an Entry order on the breakout of that trend line.

MACD divergence trading method used not only to predict trend turning points, but also for trend confirmation. A current trend has high potentials to continue unchanged in case no divergence between MACD and price was established after most recent tops/bottoms evaluation.

ZigZag


ZigZag
The Zigzag indicator is a series of trend lines connecting significant peaks and foundations at the price plot. Minimum price change parameter determines the percentage for the price to move in order to form a new "Zig" or "Zag" line. This indicator eliminates those changes on the plot we analyze that are less than the given v alue. Therefore, the Zigzag reflects significant changes only.

In most cases, we use Zigzag to facilitate the perception of plots as it shows only the most important changes and turns. You can also reveal Elliot Waves and various figures on the plot with its aid.



It is important to understand that the last section of the indicator may vary depending on the changes of data you analyze. This is one of those indicators, where a change of securities price can provoke a change of the previous value. This ability to correct its values by the following price changes makes Zigzag a perfect tool for analyzing price changes that have already happened. Therefore, you should not try to create a trade system basing on the Zigzag. It is more suitable for analyzing historical data than for making prognoses.